Rick Santorum’s decision to drop out of the presidential race may have brought a sigh of relief to Mitt Romney and the GOP establishment, but sometimes what’s good for a political party nationally, harms the party at a local level. One of those times is now.
Santorum’s decision was a wish come true for most Republicans in Washington, DC, but it may snuff out embers of hope for some Republican candidates here in California. And the decision may be cause for California Democrats to celebrate: their prospects in the rapidly approaching June primary election just improved.
The conventional thinking is that now, that the long, bitter Republican nomination process has finally fizzled out, the party will unite and Romney will be able to stockpile money for November.
So how does this help Democrats? Well, if Santorum were still a factor and if there was at least some doubt as to the eventual GOP nominee, then Republican voters would have been more motivated than Democrats to go to the polls in June. But now, that soufflé has collapsed and so too has a potential Republican voter turnout advantage.
Keep in mind, that as it stands now, many if not most Californians might not even bother to vote in June. There are plenty of issues on the ballot, but other than the Republican presidential race, who is paying attention? Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s re-election seems to be such a lock, that few people are even aware she has challengers. All of California’s 53 congressional seats are up for grabs, but historically few people are lured to the polls for congressional races, especially in a primary. The same holds true for this year’s state Senate and Assembly races.
In most election years, anemic voter turnout during a primary wouldn’t matter. Republicans have historically only allowed Republicans to vote in their primaries and Democrats have for the most part limited their primaries to only Democrats. But this June, voter turnout could be critical. That’s because of the recently passed ballot initiative, Proposition 14. Proposition 14, taking effect for the first time, calls for all of the candidates to be together on a single ballot. The top two vote getters, regardless of party will move on to the general election.
So most likely, Democrats will win one or both of the top two spots in districts where they have a registration advantage and Republicans will win one or both of the top spots in districts where they have the advantage.
Perhaps the only thing that could have altered the preordained was if California Republicans thought their votes still mattered in choosing their party’s presidential nominee. But now those votes won’t matter.
So all those California Republicans who hoped for their intra-party brawling to end may have hoped for the wrong thing. Before Californians even had a say, Mitt Romney has been signed, sealed and delivered. The suspense is gone and so too perhaps is the state GOP’s ace in the hole: a potential voter turnout advantage.
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